🔗 Share this article

Initially, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a strong position on Ukraine. After delivering threats of "severe repercussions" in August should Putin persisted hindering truce negotiations, he ultimately imposed substantial penalties on the Russian two largest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action substantially impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, he has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

The former president's plan would effectively benefit the Russian leader for occupying a sovereign nation while putting Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan effectively weaken that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, Trump seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a mere land disagreement, like giving Putin a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's invasion is not simply about controlling a damaged region of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to weaken it so it stops functions as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the accountable government that his increasing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While maintaining in position the already split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the plan would compel the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its forces have been unable to capture in more than a ten years of conflict, this concession would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a essential barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital should he subsequently choose to renew the conflict.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no such restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's proposal states: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." As if to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes Russia commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a return of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – for what reason should we believe Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "strong coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only prevent the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the security presence, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, rearming, and attacking again.

World Concern

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would provide the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against renewed Russian aggression – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not