Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
