Is the Entertainment Fading? The Fall of the Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far is the reduction of scoring in open play and the way clubs have been scoring increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.
Comparing goal sources to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 fewer altogether.
If we look at overall statistics, shot attempts teams are taking reveal a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.
Regardless of the notable jump in set-play finishes, records show just two more shots generated from these situations outside of penalties, indicating the efficiency clubs are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball situations.
Goal Statistics Reveal an Interesting Narrative
301 total goals scored in 110 matches to date averages out at 2.74 scores each match, which if it continued for the whole season would be the lowest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69 per game).
But just under 200 goals coming in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the least for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).
2009-10 also marks the sole English top-flight campaign to witness scoring at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).
Which Sides Are Most Responsible?
In terms of goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have recorded by far the biggest decline, scoring a mere four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than at this stage last season.
Outside of Wolves, the EPL's drop in goals from open play is very much a trend among London clubs, with half of the city's seven teams netting at least five goals fewer from open play than the prior season.
In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring numerous goals at the start of the previous campaign rather than them having difficulty to convert in open-play this campaign.
Conversely Man City have experienced the largest rise, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far coming in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Looking at newly promoted sides with the relegated sides they took the place of. Play-off champions the Black Cats have recorded an additional three goals in open-play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 leading to relegation last season.
When it comes to scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the biggest increase, with each team making up for the five fewer goals that they've scored in open play with the same number from set-pieces.
Manchester United have recorded two times more scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign before the manager assumed control, while the Black Cats again are more successful at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.
City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, as they've netted three fewer than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, though this could be because of the change in style they have tried to implement.
Overall Patterns
Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – are this term's leading trend-followers by recording fewer goals from open-play and more from set-plays, while Man City stand as the unique club to buck the trend to date by performing the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to see if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their overall inventiveness and start converting additional scores in open play also.