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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still