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Within the widespread uncertainty following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.