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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.